Granularity of corporate debt : [Version 9 Mai 2013]

We study to what extent firms spread out their debt maturity dates across time, which we call "granularity of corporate debt." We consider the role of debt granularity using a simple model in which a firm's inability to roll over expiring debt causes inefficiencies, such as costly asset sales or underinvestment. Since multiple small asset sales are less costly than a single large one, firms may diversify debt rollovers across maturity dates. We construct granularity measures using data on corporate bond issuers for the 1991-2011 period and establish a number of novel findings. First, there is substantial variation in granularity in that many firms have either very concentrated or highly dispersed maturity structures. Second, our model's predictions are consistent with observed variation in granularity. Corporate debt maturities are more dispersed for larger and more mature firms, for firms with better investment opportunities, with higher leverage ratios, and with lower levels of current cash flows. We also show that during the recent financial crisis especially firms with valuable investment opportunities implemented more dispersed maturity structures. Finally, granularity plays an important role for bond issuances, because we document that newly issued corporate bond maturities complement pre-existing bond maturity profiles

Market implied costs of bankruptcy

This paper takes a novel approach to estimating bankruptcy costs by inference from market prices of equity and put options using a dynamic structural model of capital structure. This approach avoids the selection bias of looking at firms in or near default and therefore permits theories of ex ante capital structure determination to be tested. We identify significant cross sectional variation in bankruptcy costs across industries and relate these to specific firm characteristics. We find that asset volatility and growth options have significant positive impacts, while tangibility and size have negative impacts. Our bankruptcy cost variable estimate significantly negatively impacts leverage ratios. This negative impact is in addition to that of other firm characteristics such as asset intangibility and asset volatility. The results provide strong support for the tradeoff theory of capital structure

Sovereign bond risk premiums

Credit risk has become an important factor driving government bond returns. We therefore introduce an asset pricing model which exploits information contained in both forward interest rates and forward CDS spreads. Our empirical analysis covers euro-zone countries with German government bonds as credit risk-free assets. We construct a market factor from the first three principal components of the German forward curve as well as a common and a country-specific credit factor from the principal components of the forward CDS curves. We find that predictability of risk premiums of sovereign euro-zone bonds improves substantially if the market factor is augmented by a common and an orthogonal country-specific credit factor. While the common credit factor is significant for most countries in the sample, the country-specific factor is significant mainly for peripheral euro-zone countries. Finally, we find that during the current crisis period, market and credit risk premiums of government bonds are negative over long subintervals, a finding that we attribute to the presence of financial repression in euro-zone countries

Human Capital, Bankruptcy and Capital Structure

We derive a firm's optimal capital structure and managerial compensation contract when employees are averse to bearing their own human capital risk, while equity holders can diversify this risk away. In the presence of corporate taxes, our model delivers optimal debt levels consistent with those observed in practice. It also makes a number of predictions for the cross-sectional distribution of firm leverage. Consistent with existing empirical evidence, it implies persistent idiosyncratic differences in leverage across firms. An important new empirical prediction of the model is that, ceteris paribus, firms with more leverage should pay higher wages.

Where is the Market? Evidence from Cross-Listings in the U.S.

We explore two main questions. First, can two markets for a company’s shares coexist and, if so, what determines the distribution of trading volume across them? For firms cross-listed in the U.S. we find that in most cases U.S. trading is a significant fraction of total volume, and tends to be larger for companies based in countries that are geographically close, with low financial development and poor anti-insider trading protection. Moreover, the relative size of the U.S. market is larger if the company is small, volatile and high-tech. Second, we ask whether developing an active foreign market entails lower domestic trading activity. We find that for firms based in developed markets, the domestic turnover rate increases in the wake of cross-listing and remains permanently higher. In contrast, emerging market firms tend to experience a decrease in domestic trading activity.trading volume, cross-listing, flow-back

Covid-19 and Corporate Finance

We distill evidence about the effects of COVID-19 on companies. Stock price reactions to the shock differed greatly across firms, depending on their resilience to social distancing, financial flexibility, and corporate culture. The same characteristics affected the response of firms’ sales, employment, and asset growth. Despite the shock, firms expanded their balance sheets and liquidity by raising funds from banks, bonds, and equity markets. While listed firms reduced their leverage, unlisted ones, especially small and medium enterprises, increased it. Government support programs helped firms access external funding. We conclude by identifying unexplored research issues regarding the long-run effects of COVID-19 on companies

What Makes Stock Exchanges Succeed? Evidence from Cross-Listing Decisions

Despite the increasing integration of capital markets, geography has not yet become irrelevant to finance. Between 1986 and 1997, European public companies have increasingly listed abroad, especially in the U.S. We relate the cross-listing decisions to the characteristics of the destination exchanges (and countries) relative to those of the home exchange (and country). European companies appear more likely to cross-list in more liquid and larger markets, and in markets where several companies from their industry are already cross-listed. They are also more likely to cross-list in countries with better investor protection, and more efficient courts and bureaucracy, but not with more stringent accounting standards.cross-listings, going public, initial public offerings, geography, stock market competition

Low Risk Anomalies?

This paper shows that low risk anomalies in the CAPM and in traditional factor models arise when investors require compensation for coskewness risk. Empirically, we find that option-implied ex-ante skewness is strongly related to ex-post residual coskewness, which allows us to construct coskewness factor mimicking portfolios. Controlling for skewness renders the alphas of betting-against-beta and -volatility insignificant. We also show that the returns of beta- and volatility-sorted portfolios are largely driven by a single principal component, which is in turn largely explained by skewness

Bank capital regulation with random audits

We consider a model of optimal bank closure rules (cum capital replenishment by banks), with Poisson-distributed audits of the bank's asset value by the regulator, with the goal of eliminating (ameliorating) the incentives of levered bank shareholders/managers to take excessive risks in their choice of underlying assets. The roles of (tax or other) subsidies on deposit interest payments by the bank, and of the auditing frequency are examined